As election-day quickly approaches the political pollsters, pundits and so-called experts are in high gear pontificating on the certainty of their predictions. The truth be told, they are not prognosticators with a crystal ball, just pundits with an opinion.
The futility of predictions is consistently demonstrated in sports. Take the ALCS between the New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers. The experts pronounced the Yankees would win ALCS series and the World Series. They sang praises about the strength of the great Yankee line up and how the Tigers would not be able to compete with these super stars. Being a Yankee fan, the experts told me exactly what I wanted to hear. Unfortunately, the Tigers did not get the memo.
This phenomenon exists every week in football. Sports pundits pontificate on the abilities of athletes and teams to compete, measure performances and strategies and predict the winners and losers while sports books announce the point spreads of the favored. They explain the errors as “upsets” and there have been plenty. Once John Madden was questioned about the outcome of a Super Bowl game where one of the teams was heavily favored by the sports pundits and bookies. Madden commented that if the experts could accurately predict who would win, then why play the game?
This is a perfect analogy to the current election. Prognosticators use the polls to make their predictions of who will win the elections. Yet, the truth is that no one really knows. But to listen to the liberal prophets of today you would think they do have a crystal ball. But do they?
In the 1992 elections they failed to accurately predict Ross Perot achieving 19% of the vote allowing Bill Clinton to win with just 42% of the popular vote. In the 1996 election liberal pundits predicted a landslide victory by Bill Clinton over Bob Dole by as much as 15-18%. Clinton did win but only by 8%, which is what Ross Perot received. It was not the “landslide” they predicted. Also, the democrats did not win a majority in Congress as predicted either.
In the 2000 elections liberals announced polling data predicted Al Gore would easily win the election by as much as 8% and democrats would win back Congress. Wrong again, as Gore lost the election and Republicans gained 6 seats in the House and 2 seats in the Senate.
In the 2004 elections the polls once again pronounced large democrat leads in the generic polls and predicted John Kerry would win the presidency by “landslide” of between 4-8% and democrats predicted winning a majority in Congress. Even election-day exit polls had Kerry winning Florida by 16%. They were wrong again. President Bush beat John Kerry by 4% and the Republicans gained 5 seats in the House and 4 seats in the Senate.
So as before, liberal media and pollsters are predicting the democrat victory based on early polling data. As usual they provide little reporting on races where polling does not support victory. For instance, the SurveyUSA poll in the New York 26th Congressional District has Republican Tom Reynolds recapturing a tiny lead against Democrat Jack Davis, 49%-46%; or Republican Doug Lambom of Colorado’s 5th District now leading Democrat Jay Fawcett by 51% to 38%; or Representative Julia Carson (D-IN) now losing to Republican Eric Dickerson 42% to 45%; or Rasmussen’s poll showing Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT), who the media polls pronounced as “toast”, has now moved within 3% of Democrat John Tester.
Yet, one has to wonder about the accuracy and credibility of even legitimate polls. For example in Missouri the Rasmussen poll has Jim Talent leading by 1% and a USA survey poll has his opponent Clair McCaskill leading by 9%. Both polls were conducted at the same time, so who do you believe?
Consumer researcher, Jack Neff of Advertising Age, advocated skewed polling results are due to consumer rebellion against constant surveys. He noted response rates of consumers continue to decline as consumer refuse to participate. Maybe legitimate pollsters are suffering the same problems as consumer researchers.
As before, liberal pundits are predicting the democrats will gain the majority in the House and maybe the Senate. Legitimate pollsters vacillate between a race too close to call and slight wins for democrats. But, as in sports who can really predict the outcome of any contest. That is why they play the game and that is why we vote. I have no idea who will win. I will wait for election results, then hopefully I can do a victory dance.
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